What’s going on in Ukraine?

Russia has tried to de-capitate the Ukraine leadership; it failed. Tanks rolled, assault helicopters went in and fighter aircraft went in. In every case, the Ukrainians repelled them. The tanks were forced back after heavy losses from the Javelin anti-tank missiles, the helicopters were shot down by Ukrainian fighter jets and Stingers, and the Russian fighter jets flying over Ukraine were shot down by US Air Force F-22 stealth jets which they did not even see on their RADARS. The Russians have their own Airborne Early Warning RADAR aircraft flying over Russian territory; they did not see the F-22s either. Neither did the S-400s/S-500s,

So, NATO is not putting ground troops into Ukraine (at least not yet), but is keeping the Russians from getting air superiority over the battlefield. Oh, BTW, those Javelins can and will be used against any Russian air defense equipment as a priority over tanks.  The Russians fight with the doctrine of air superiority; they realize that they cannot protect the tanks and everything else without effective air defense.

My info has been that Russia would not invade, but it is now not Invade Successfully. Russia has lost more than 1000 young men in the first hours of fighting; it is not going to get better. The Russians are still fighting like it was World War 2; roll the tanks and punch through your enemy; that no longer works. Out of 50 tanks in one attack, 35 were knocked out by Javelins; the 15 left retreated back to their starting lines.

I was a military intelligence officer for 20 years, so I know something of this. Say you have 200,000 troops deployed, many of these will be support troops. It is called the tooth-to-tail ratio; how many of those troops are logistics, intelligence, medical, transport via truck/train, fuel and ammunition supply, food, water,  heat, equipment repair, etc.  It is likely that the Russians only have around 67-75,000 front-line troops and the military infrastructure to re-supply them is not very robust. That is when they are still in Russia. When they move into Ukraine, the Javelins and other anti-tank missiles will be used to attack the fuel, food, and ammunition trucks; things will grind to halt quickly and it is still very cold. Another BTW, the Russian military does not have enough trucks, even in Russia. How are they going to re-supply in Ukraine? Captured trucks/fuel; that is not a good plan.

An army must have food, fuel, and ammunition or it ceases to be effective. It must also have replacements for the men and equipment lost. Russia does not have the logistics to support a long war. It does not even have the Military-Industrial Complex to support a medium war. This is why Putin just tried the lightning war approach. When the body bags start going back, support will crumble rapidly; 25% of the Russian population is Ukrainian and, possibly 10-15 percent of the Russian Army is as well. How is that going to go?

So, yes, all of those tanks lined up on the border are scary to anyone, but actually using them is a very complex dance, especially when there is someone fighting back. Putin was trying to reach his objectives by intimidation; it did not work. Now, unopposed rolling into Russian-held areas and the Lightning War/Air Assault; these did not work. Putin has no choice now; he must achieve some worthwhile objective or he will be ousted as the Russian leader. He will send the tanks in again; he must take a lot of territory fast. The only way to do that is through tanks. That approach has already failed, but, hey, maybe the Ukrainians will run out of anti-tank missiles. Not very likely, is it?

The armies of the world already know that tanks can only shoot 2-3 miles (4-5 kilometers), but missiles can kill from 25 miles (the newer ones). Even the US Marine Corps has gotten rid of their tanks in favor of new anti-tank and anti-ship missiles. The Russians are moving as fast as they can in this area, but they no longer have the industrial base to make enough of these new weapons, particularly anything using computer chips; that includes missiles, fighter planes, submarines, and ships.

In other posts, I have already addressed Nuclear Weapons; there are none. Not Russia, not the USA, not China, or anyone else; the Universe just said no one day. None of them work anymore. Why do you think the US Military has spent so much treasure on smart munitions that are smaller, can go farther, and still kill with pinpoint accuracy day/night in any weather? Nuclear warfare is no longer an option and Russia does not have the smart munitions.

So, yes, the Ukrainians cannot go head-to-head or tank-to-tank with the Russian Army, but they do not have to. The Russians will soon look to be a Bear Cub. Wow, will NATO even be needed anymore? Or the EU?

Our world is changing. The energies have shifted. In the past, this would have escalated into a major European or World War. The Elites/Banksters/Military Industrial Complexes always want wars to make extend their control and make incredible amounts of money. The technologies of warfare have changed, but the Russian military did not change with them. BTW, neither did the Chinese military.

In the US, only 26% want to get involved in the Russian-Ukraine war. Biden’s approval numbers are around 33% in many states and less than 40% nationwide. He is a failed President; his push for war is not working. People, suddenly, are much more difficult to manipulate; wonderful.

What a shock for everyone. The Russians attacked, but somehow, we did not all go to war. Again, somehow, their huge overwhelming force has not achieved what it was supposed to. Oh Shit, oh Dear. What has changed?

2022 is a year of vast changes for the better.

Love, Light and Laughter,


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