What we just witnessed is the last gasp of the Cold War. Russia and China will never be friends, let alone Allies. Biden and the US Government and Intelligence look to be idiots while Putin looks to have played them. Many in the world are acknowledging that Biden was using this crisis to distract America from his very unpopular policies. But, nobody in America or Europe really wanted a war; except the Elites. They want a distraction away from Covid lockdowns, economic destruction, masks, jabs, mandates, and Vax Passports; there is a lot of anger out there. There will be Nuremberg 2.0 Trials and hangings.
One big thing happened; NATO got re-invigorated for a little while. Ukraine will probably never (or not for a while) be allowed to join NATO, but Finland and Sweden may. The US has turned its focus on China and is less willing to be the security guarantor for Europe. Europe is quite wealthy and should be able to protect itself.
Russia must ally itself with Germany; the process has already begun with the Kaliningrad enclave. That will be the end of NATO and the EU, and the Euro; the dollar will continue to be the reserve currency that national currencies are pegged to. What’s in it for Germany? Simple, energy, and many other natural resources, but also an export market for all those cars it is no longer selling to the UK, the US, and the rest of Europe. The UK has moved on and is becoming a worldwide trading nation again; it will remain a close ally to the US. Poland, Ukraine, Romania will have to spend more on defense and band together against the Russians, but the Russian threat may be gone in just another decade. What happens to the Russian gas and oil will be interesting; too many pipelines going everywhere.
The US is going through an incredible re-industrialization now along with Mexico and, less so, Canada. With a change in policy, it will become energy independent and an exporter rapidly. The US is self-sufficient and does not need to import much going forward. Much of the world will be looking for markets to export to. Japan and Australia will be the key allies in Asia. Korea, Singapore, and the Philippines will be lesser.
The US will pick and choose what European allies it wants to keep. Poland, the Baltic States, Finland, Sweden, and Norway are good bets. Italy is another likely choice, but only after they fix their finances. France will go its own way like they always do. Spain and Greece have a lot of work to do to become valuable again. Turkey is a basket case and will be for quite a while. Chechia, Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary will probably go with the Germans or the Poles or both (got to keep the Germans inline).
China is already a failed state. It has alienated everyone around it. It cannot import enough coal to keep the lights/heat on. Its foreign reserves (dollars) are insufficient to buy food, gas/oil, coal, iron ore, etc that it needs. Its real estate (30% of GDP) has collapsed and brought the provincial governments down with it. It is no longer a low-cost manufacturer to the world and has become very difficult to make money. China will break up into six or seven regional states or worse.
If there is a Naval conflict with the United States, the Straits of Malacca can be blocked and China would cease to exist in a month or two. No oil or gas for anything. This is also something that Japan or India can do at will. Any conflict on the high seas would be the end of any Chinese exports; they must all go by sea.
Globalism is dead even if Biden does not know it yet. It was created after WW2 when the US Navy allowed everyone to trade with anyone they wished and could access the US Market. It was a slow poison that the Elites pushed hoping for their Great Reset. Think multi-national corporations, distant supply chains, de-industrialization of the West, outlawing the guns, and the rise of China. It is all collapsing now.
We are witnessing the creation of a new world.
Just one more theme. Global Warming has been a con job; it is Global Cooling that is coming. Wind and Solar cannot replace carbon-based fuels as we are all seeing; that is also part of the con job. When the huge amounts of people ready to retire take their money, work hours, and liquidated investments with them, financing of everything will be much more expensive. Money will soon get tight; borrowing will be much more expensive. Green technology is super expensive in upfront costs; no one will be able to afford it anymore. Guess what, we will have no choice but to go back to natural gas, oil, coal, and nuclear power to keep the lights and heat on. Even if we do move to EVs over gasoline cars, someone is going to have to generate all that electricity.
Love, Light and Laughter,
