Russia is moving its forces into the Russian separatist enclaves in Eastern Ukraine. Technically, this is an invasion similar to Crimea and like that situation, Putin has declared them to be independent states and allies of the Russian Federation. They too will be annexed into Russia.
This is a salami-slicing strategy. Russia successfully did this in Kaliningrad, Moldova, Georgia, and Crimea: why not try it again in Eastern Ukraine? This time, the Ukrainians are prepared and already fighting the separatists, so a massive show of force was required. Putin is moving his military into these Russian separatist areas; yes, it will be a full-scale military takeover and Russia will claim and defend its airspace. Like Crimea, the world will not recognize the Russian seizure of parts of Ukraine, but it will be another fait accompli.
Like all the other gains, Russia wants these to be relatively bloodless. If you look at Syria, that too was a salami-slicing gain. Yes, many have died, but not Russians.
The question will be, “What about Sanctions?” The Europeans are divided and will not present a united front; any sanctions coming out of Europe will be weak and ineffective. Europe is largely dependent on Russia for oil and natural gas and will cave to Putin. The UK has a treaty with Ukraine and its sanctions, related to finances (City of London) will have more teeth. Biden is weak and will do nothing.
Ukraine is not part of NATO and no one is on the hook to defend it. A massive invasion would have been a tripwire that Poland and the US could not ignore. So, lots of posturing and the gobble up of Russian areas of Eastern Ukraine. Ukraine has come together as a nation and is much stronger; further salami-slicing will be more difficult.
What’s next? Russia is much more secure with these acquisitions; the invasion routes from Ukraine are more under Russian control. Not fully, but much more. Now, Putin will turn his attention to Poland and the Baltic States; that is the last invasion routes not under Russian control. Big issue, they are all in the NATO Alliance and it is likelier that Sweden and Finland will join as well.
Germany and France can no longer be trusted, but they will not trust each other. Italy, Spain, and Greece are all big question marks. The EU is collapsing. Belgium and the Netherlands will probably link with the UK for security. Turkey will never be on Russia’s side. If NATO survives, it will be based on the Nordic and Baltic States (except Germany); Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and, perhaps, Romania as an outlier. The US and UK will maintain their special relationship and be a backstop for the Nordic Alliance. Romania may have to link up with Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria in their own Eastern Defense/Security Block. Bulgaria seems to be pro-Russian; it will be thrown out of NATO along with Turkey. Moldova may link up with this Eastern Block or become part of Hungary (the non-Russian part).
Ukraine will be forced to adopt a neutral stance towards Russia while keeping its democratic approach to Europe; this will be difficult. Back in 2010, Demographers were saying that Russia could cease to exist as a country in 20-30 years. These predictions seem to be on track. If true, Russian issues will cease to be a concern soon.
NATO survived, but cannot survive a German-Russian alliance. The United States is no longer willing to be the guarantor of peace in the World; it has been going into a period of isolation for a while. It grows its own food, is self-sufficient in the production of goods, has a wonderful transportation system (air, roads, and water), Mexico to the south, and two oceans as moats for protection. Canada is breaking up and will become part of the US fairly quickly. It will take longer, but Mexico will as well. The deserts in Southwestern US-Northern Mexico will become well-watered grow zones as part of the changing Jet Steams/Mini Ice Age. Corn and wheat production will shift south. Mexico is nearly a failed state struggling with its drug cartels.
The old world is changing rapidly. The old status quo no longer applies. For carbon’s sake, we have become reliant on wind and solar energy which are not up to the task. Now, we must endure brown/blackouts while we ramp up natural gas and nuclear power again. Coal will still be important in much of the world.
This post has been focused on European geopolitics.
The world does not know it yet, but China is already a Failed State; its economy and finances have failed, it cannot keep the lights/heat on, it can no longer buy the oil, gas, coal, raw materials, and food it needs; not enough foreign dollar reserves. Seventy-five percent of Chinese people’s investments go into real estate which is nearly 30% of their GDP. China’s real estate sector is a $62 Trillion asset that has lost 50% in value; that’s$31 Trillion and it is going to get worse. Everything in China is going bankrupt; the banks, the stock markets, the provincial governments, the state-owned enterprises. There is not enough money to maintain and/or operate their military. There may not be enough food to feed their military. China is likely to break up into as many as seven entities; the Han Chinese are losing/have lost their grip on the non-Han peoples. Taiwan is a non-Han people and will resist Han domination fiercely.
Formosa/Taiwan has traditionally been controlled by China’s enemies; frequently Japan. Together with Japan, this is called the First Island Chain and it has been used to bottle up China’s access to world trade for 1000s of years. The only reason China got rich was free trade to the world provided by the US Navy; everyone was free to trade with anyone else guaranteed by the US after World War Two. That is where Globalism came from and the hollowing out of manufacturing in Europe and the USA.
For whatever reason, call it Covid or failed supply chains, Chinese exports have been halted. The ships are not sailing. The supply of dollars has been stopped and everything is falling apart. 1000s of companies are leaving or have left China. Foreign investors are fleeing; at least those with any sense. Yes, 100s of ships are waiting to unload, but their cargos are three months late (or more) and have missed their sale windows; this will force massive discounts and not enough dollars flowing back to China.
If a shooting war breaks out in the oceans around China, all shipping would stop suddenly; that would mean the end of Chinese exports and the inability of importing oil, gas, coal, food, or other raw materials (iron ore, etc.). I bring this up for those who think China can use its Navy for anything but its version of salami-slicing in the South China Sea. Even if the US stays out of it, Japan, Australia (perhaps), India, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines would not (again, perhaps). How hard is it to sink oil tankers with missiles from a long ways off? Or seize them?
So, yes, the world is a very different place than it was two years ago. Amazing isn’t it? It is the Energy Shift that is doing this!
Love, Light and Laughter,
