Depending on your news source, Russia is winning. Nonsense, it is mostly a standoff for now. The Russians already controlled much of the Donbas since 2014 and their annexation of Crimea. Yes, in the early days of the invasion, they captured a land bridge to Crimea and have been able to hold on to it.
But they failed stupendously in attacking Kiev/Kyiv (along with the Belarussians). Also, mostly failed in attacking Kharkiv; they are still there but are being pushed back to Russia.
Why is Russia losing? Their military is a hollowed-out force. Their officers are not well trained or battle-hardened. They do not have a Non-Commissioned Officer structure and their training is abysmal. Through in lack of food, fuel, and ammunition (logistics); an army fights on its stomach. It seems that the Russians are recruiting their retired military to fight; a pilot was captured after his plane was shot down; he was a retired Russian AF Colonel flying as a Contractor/Mercenary. That means that their pilots do not want to fly over Ukraine (too much fear) or they do not have enough trained pilots (or both). Russian fighter aircraft will not fly high in fear of being shot down by Ukrainian S-300s (Russian Air Defense systems) and when they fly low, they are being shot down by Manpads (Stingers, etc.) Modern air forces use standoff weapons (smart) from high-altitude precision strikes; the Russians have run out of these. They did not build so many of them as they did not have the chips due to sanctions from 2014. Their planes are using camping/hiking GPS units which are not accurate or robust enough for military use. This applies to their artillery and tanks; they are shipping 1000s of T-62s in to fight the Ukrainians. Why? Because they are so old that they do not have chips. They also have much less armor protection, require one more man, and smaller tank guns; this is not going to turn out well for Russian troops.
The Russians are using massive amounts of artillery shells. So much so that they are running out. Guess what, they are having massive problems making new ones. What are they doing? Pulling the shells out of long-term storage; they are firing shells made in the 1960s and 70s and many do not work anymore. Artillery is how the Russians fight; they do not care about destroying civilian infrastructure. Force people to leave as refugees; those who are left are fighters and can be hunted down and killed on sight.
Russia was never going to stop with Ukraine; Moldova, Romania, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia were on the target list. Now, add Finland and Sweden. This is why the US and NATO have pulled all the stops out to kill the Russian Army in Ukraine. NATO planners still think that Putin has Nukes and will use them; all the Nukes have expired. The Plutonium/Uranium has degraded so much that they will not work anymore. Think about it, making them all was hugely expensive in terms of communications, computers, and infrastructure. All of the infrastructures have decayed and Russia does not have the communications or computers now. Does anyone think that Putin would not have used one or more tactical nukes on the Ukrainians; by now? The world is laughing at him and his Army.
So what has changed? Two big things; unmanned drones are being used to attack, but more importantly to locate targets and provide precise target information for long-rang artillery strikes. That’s the other thing, the West is/has provided longer-range artillery to the Ukrainians; the Russians can shoot out 20-22 kilometers while the Ukrainians can shoot out 25 miles or 40 miles with rocket assistance. 10 miles is 16 kilometers; do the math. It has taken a while for the Ukrainians to get the new artillery systems, ammunition, and completed training, but these systems are being used against the Russians now. So, if the Ukrainians can hit targets with great precision out to 64 kilometers and the Russians can only hit massed area targets out 22, who is going to lose? The Ukrainians have started using these weapons to target the Russian ammunition depots and have destroyed 4-5 of them this past week. That is not just artillery shells, but also tank shells and all of the small arms stuff. Fuel depots are next. Also food and clothing warehouses. Time and technology have turned against the Russians.
The Ukrainians will recapture Kherson first; they have almost done so already. This will allow them to send their forces to Crimea to stop Russian resupply. The Russians resupply primarily with railroads which are only coming from Crimea. Long-range artillery will be able to destroy this railroad resupply even before they take Crimea. When the Ukrainians take Kherson, that is the beginning of the end for Putin. When the Ukrainians take Crimea, that is the end of the Russian Black Sea Fleet; no more docking, supply, and repair facilities.
Putin will try for a cease-fire soon and the Globalists will all pile on demanding that Ukraine give up territory; this is absolutely necessary to stop (or turn back) the ongoing destruction of global supply chains for energy and food. Is it likely that Ukraine will stop after all the Russian destruction? Particularly if they have the military advantage? The Ukrainians know the Russians cannot win and why.
The big question is, will the Ukrainians stop after they have driven the Russians out? Will they attack and subjugate Belarus for their enabling attack on Kyiv? When the Russian Army collapses, what happens to Putin? Will Poland attack Kaliningrad? Lithuania? What is going to happen to Belarus? Will the Fins attack the Russians to regain lost territories? The Russian Federation will collapse and twenty ethnic regions will become independent states (sort of). At least more independent, but many will depend on the former Russian rail infrastructure. These regions are where the raw materials that the Russians exported come from; oil, gas, wood, metals, food, and more. With the drawdown of Russian troops in these areas, there is pent-up demand for more independence even now. None of these regions want to send their young men to Ukraine to be killed.
The old, very Dark, World Order (Globalist, Liberal, Colonial, UN, EU, etc.) is collapsing. It is being replaced by populists, traditionalists, and people who are religious and/or culturalists. Tribalism is coming back. People want to escape from the control of the liberal/left-leaning big cities that overpower the rural/country vote. See Britain (Brexit), France, Poland, Hungary, and more.
Texas, in the USA, was an independent country before it joined the United States. Its constitution allows it to form five (5) different states or, leave the US Union and become independent again. That may actually be happening; Texit. The US Southern Border is a disaster and many Texans think Biden is illegitimate as President and that Washington DC is too corrupt/can’t be fixed.
What will happen to the Russians in the Baltic States? Moldova? Kaliningrad? Will they be forced to return to Russia as refugees? What will happen to the Russians in Russia when all the suppressed peoples revolt? The Russian Army is a hodge-podge of these ethnic peoples; it will not be pretty.
Light/Right-Spin is taking/has taken over. The Dark Side of the Force is collapsing/fading away. This is the Darkness before the Dawn.
Love, Light and Laughter,
