In my last post, I was a bit too hopeful for Ukraine; NATO is not helping in the air (not yet). Everything else will play itself out in the coming weeks. Ukraine could not hope to go head-to-head with the Russians; their strategy was to draw the Russian tank columns far enough that they would be difficult to keep re-supplied. Using Stinger missiles to knock the helicopters down and anti-tank missiles to knock the APCs (armored personnel carriers) escorts out, Ukrainians can prevent much of the needed fuel, food, and munitions from getting to the frontline Russian tanks. Keep these in short supply and the Russian attack formations grind to a halt. Run out of fuel no one moves and there is no heat in the dead of winter.
Putin does not have the military infrastructure for a long war. Yes, he had all the oil and gas he could want, but he does not have enough trucks to get the gas (and munitions/food) to his tanks in Ukraine. Even in Russia, the Russian Army does not have enough trucks and depends on train/rail transport. Big problem: Russian trains do not work in Ukraine (wrong gauge – the Ukrainians changed them).
Now, body bags will become an increasingly difficult problem for Putin. The Ukrainians have resisted fiercely and the Russian dead and wounded are much higher than planned for. This is getting worse and worse by the hour. Russia does not have a military age replacement population; it’s too small. Any significant losses in Ukraine will be catastrophic to Russia.
Ukraine has a population of 45 million; half of Russia’s. But…..Ukraine has a large population spread throughout its territory; all of them are fighting the Russians. This is not about Kiev.
It gets even worse, yes, Russia has many missiles, fighter jets, and attack helicopters, but they are mostly unreliable as they all use semi-conductor chips that Russia cannot buy in enough numbers. Warfare has gone high-tech and Russia does not have the technology; they must import everything. Remember, there is a great shortage of chips worldwide and Russia was sanctioned (kept from buying them) after their invasion of Crimea (8 years ago). Does anything in the Russian military work the way it is supposed to work? Obviously, their tanks do.
Like the Armada 14 tank and the Su-57 “stealth” fighter, only a dozen have been built. Same for their hypersonic missiles. Russia does not have the Military-Industrial Complex to make large quantities of these and other high-tech weapons. The Russians are fighting the Ukrainians like it was World War 2.
All the Ukrainians have to do is to keep destroying Russian trucks; that can be done by men with guns and grenades. Unless the Russians get the Ukrainians to surrender (completely) in 10 days, it becomes a hopeless war for Putin. The Ukrainians will be getting more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to attack the extended supply lines; even from NATO.
What happens? Russian armies get stalled and surrounded with no food, fuel, or munitions; they are too far away to be rescued. Any relieving tank columns would suffer the same fate. Ukraine is just too big to gobble up quickly; Putin bit off more than he can chew.
So, what was Putin going to do next? Simple, build up his forces in Ukraine and Belarus and attack Poland from three sides (Kaliningrad as well). The Baltic States and Romania would have been after that. NATO did nothing and Putin is convinced that it will collapse. He even warned that he would attack Finland and Sweden if they joined NATO. Putin has told the world that NATO must pull its forces out of Poland and Romania. That includes Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Putin is going to rebuild the borders of the Soviet Union if he can. Does NATO think Ukraine, is it?
Fortunately, that is not going to happen. Ukraine can trade territory for a winning strategy. Both Napolean and Hitler lost because they had indefensible supply lines that were too long. It is ironic that Russia has fallen into the same trap.
What about the EU? It has been totally toothless in this crisis. There is no benefit to being in the EU when Russia is aggressive. NATO, yes, maybe, but the EU, no. What about Germany? It is the leading state within the EU and, frequently, decides on what and how things are done. It does not control NATO. France plays along, generally, as the second fiddle. Both of these states have shown that they would not stand up for Ukraine; neither of them sent armaments to Ukraine. Germany had hoped to become an ally of Russia to obtain energy independence and as a market to sell its products (cars, etc) as it is getting harder to sell to the rest of Europe. Germany is trying to force further centralization of the EU with Germany as its chief State. That would require a military and France was pushing that. Who would want a Germany running its 4fth Reich?
That is unlikely now. The Ukrainians have stopped the flow of natural gas and oil from Russia; that will hurt Russian finances. The Germans just killed the Green Tax; they must turn to coal and nuclear power again. Nord Stream 2 is, likely, dead; even from Russia. France is already going back to nuclear; they did not have any choice either. The Green Energy sources are just not reliable enough yet and they are incredibly expensive to set up. The world stopped investing in oil and it will take 3-6 years to bring oil wells back online; as I said, no choice about coal and nuclear.
Germany is the big loser in Europe; they were seen by everyone to be in the Russian camp. After the Invasion, Russia has become a Priya, and Germany has been tarred with the same brush. Germany will not be in a leadership position for a while and, probably, neither will France. The EU will, essentially, begin to unravel quickly; Norway and Iceland first, then Poland and Hungary, then Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. The Baltic States will be leaving soon as well. Perhaps, these will all form a version of their own NATO.
What about Belarus? The Russian troops have left. People of Polish descent make up 25% of the Belarussian Army; they know that Putin will attack Poland next. There will be a coup and Putin’s stooge will be deposed. The truly elected leader will return and throw the Russians out. There goes the supply chain for the army invading from Belarus.
When the Ukraine Invasion fails, what happens to Russia? Putin will be deposed quickly and take most of the Russian Oligarchs with him; they all got rich with Putin. Perhaps, a more representative government can take root in Russia; one based on tradition, culture, and religion. Russia will still have huge oil and natural gas reserves if it can hold on to them. A future less-threatening Russia could be an ally to the Baltic States, Finland, Poland, Ukraine, and Romania. The Three Seas initiative could take hold.
After Russia’s defeat and humiliation, Poland will march in and seize Kaliningrad; Russia will not be able to do anything to stop it. Siberia is up in the air; if there is a land grab, the United States and Japan will, probably, be big winners. What will happen to the “Istans?” That is a huge question. Russia and China are both collapsing. Perhaps Central Asia will turn to India and a revived Turkey. When China collapses, India is likely to become the next major factory in Asia, but supply chains are returning quickly to Europe and North America; Mexico is a big winner.
Russia is, demographically, unable to replace the retiring/dying people running things. It really needed Ukraine but as a willing partner. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia stopped funding higher education; for 30 years, Russia has not trained its engineers and scientists. They do not have the replacements to keep the lights on and everything running. BTW, this is also true for China, but a little differently.
As I have said in other Posts, our world is changing faster than any of us realize. The energy shift is ramping up over the first 90 days of 2022; Jan – 31 days, Feb – 28 days, and March – 31 days. By April 1st, the full 80% of Light/Right-Spin power will be available for the forces of Good. The Deep State-sponsored war in Ukraine is not going to develop into a World War; Putin will not be attacking NATO. The Deep State Plandemic has failed; not enough people have been killed by the virus and vaccines. THEY really wanted a war to distract people away from all the people dying from vaccines. The Deep State Global Warming – Climate Crises has been alarmingly successful; it got us all to kill coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear in favor of unreliable wind and solar energy sources. Now, everyone is paying the price; it’s going to be cold in Europe and no gas is coming from Russia. Perhaps, the Ukrainian pipeline can be re-opened quickly and Nord Stream 2 activated by a new Russian regime; but not Putin or the Oligarchs.
The Globalist New World Order was formed when the United States decided (Deep State) to allow everyone, everywhere to trade on the seas. This was free-protected trade by the US Navy. Result? China was able to expand its trade beyond the First Island Chain and become a global manufacturing and exporting power. All the manufacturing in Europe and the United States was transferred to China; it hollowed out all of the Western Countries. Another result? Multi-national companies that had no allegiance to/with any country (yes, Deep State). Just like Fascism failed and Communism failed, Capitalism was supposed to fail; it was to be replaced with the New World Order; a dictatorship of the Elite. We were just too stupid to be allowed to run our world.
In the US and Canada, we are all watching the collapse of the New World Order that has brought us all vaccine mandates, racism, wokeness/ism, and crazy policies like Zero Emissions by 2050. A World War, from the Ukraine crises, was supposed to enable their Great Reset. This is NOT Happening. The Deep State figurehead, Biden, is crashing and burning; his approval ratings will be in the 20s soon. The Truckers are coming! The Canadians are not revolutionaries, but guns are easy to get from the USA; the Globalists took everyone else’s guns away.
It may take until April, but the Globalists/Deep Staters are failing/collapsing/dissolving everywhere. That includes the UN and the EU. Where are the Billionaires going to hide? How about the World Economic Forum (WEF)? The Davos-ers? They have purposely killed millions of us. It was never personal, just about getting more control. Hang them High!!!
Love, Light and Laughter,
